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Greetings, fellow Pro-fundity team members -
10-1-99 Page Background music:
- Following is an analysis of the picks offered on June 11th, up to September 24th, a 15 week time-span. This provides an excellent review of the value of the Pro-fundity picks using the rolling stock strategy. This strategy, buying only on evidence of strength and selling only on a signal of weakness, gave us these results. This is our attempt to answer the question, "How'd we do?"
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For the picks made on Friday, June 11th:
The aggregate return in 105 calendar days was 6.8% (23.5% APR). This analysis assumes, worst case, $1000 invested in each stock with a $20 commission for each transaction. We made money on 7, lost on 2, 1 unknown. Best case, if we had invested $10,000 with a $5 commission, the returns jump to 23.6% (82.2% APR) with 9 gainers and one unkonwn. This shows the damage commission costs do to our returns. Larger money invested up front with lower commissions pay off handsomly.
# Ticker % Gain % APR 1 PAX +24% 84% 2 NIS 20% 69% 3 AMKR +17% 59% 4 ONPT +17% 59% 5 SDTI 13% 44% 6 ROV 8% 29% 7 AIS 6% 20% 8 VLNC -20% -70% 9 SDRC -25% -87% 10 PQT ?% ?% PQT (PC Quote) was listed on AMEX when the picks were made. The security is now HYPR (Hyperfeed Technologies) listed on NASDAQ. Daily prices are available only since the transition took place. The stock price on 6/11/99 was $8.25 and $9.50 on 9/24/99.
- This weeks picks (remember the basis of our stock picks: a) sound fundamentals, b) supportive technicals, c) near-term buy, and d) positive news):
- (CYGN) Cygnus Inc. [Drugs, Drugs delivery]
- (CTAL) Catalytica, Inc. [Diversified Services/research]
- (DSP) DSP Communications, Inc. [Telecommunications]
- (MCTI) Micro Component Tech., Inc. [Electronics/semicond]
- (SDC) Santa Fe International [Energy/oil, gas drilling & exploration]
- (SRI) Stoneridge, Inc. [Automotive/parts]
- (STAA) STAAR Surgical Company [Health Services/instruments]
- (TLCM) TelCom Semiconductor Inc. [Electronics/semiconductors]
- (WERN) Werner Enterprises, Inc. [Transportation/trucking]
- (XION) Xionics Document Tech. [Computor software & svs]
- Quick Picks
We have added five low-cost price charts (below $10) for subscriber interest. These are rollers for which we offer no fundamental guarantees.
- By using appropriate strategies, we can turn a mediocre price pattern into profitable trades. To illustrate the strategy that makes the most of stocks that tend to roll, we chose one example from the report above with selections made on June 11th. We will examine in detail the buys and sells of this pick.
- PAX - The best performer of the group: Carefully observe the chart of the price pattern (this chart shows only the closing prices), where arrows are placed at each buy and sell position. When the signal is a buy, the arrow comes down from the top. Sell positions are noted by arrows coming up. Arrows point to where the transaction takes place. However, the price obtained for the transaction is 1% above the previous price point. When we get the first uptick, a Buy-stop order is placed 1% above that closing price. (Buy stop orders are filled when the price rises to our target). Remember, we get one up-tick, then place a buy-stop order for the next day that will execute only if the price reaches our target (two up-ticks in a row) price set 1% above the first up-tick.
- PAX had five buy-sell combinations, two positive and two negative. Each buy and sell transaction eats $20 in this example. If we had invested $10,000 with $5 commissions, the return would increase from 24% to 49% (a whopping 170% APR).
- This illustrates the potential using our up-tick/down-tick strategy on rollers. It has been said there is no system that works all the time. Our strategy is no exception. We will examine the difficulties in coming guideposts and techniques to minimize their effects.
- More to follow on momentum investing, stay tuned.
- It is our intent to help our subscribers understand market strategies well enough to make informed decisions and understand the risks.
We provide TC-2000 tutorials to members. See the Member Login page.
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