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Greetings, Pro-fundity team members -
05-02-03

At the bottom of the Guidepost, a full listing of this weeks picks are shown, in addition to the Charts via the Pick-link.

As a benefit of membership, you have access to all Guideposts (including Archived GP's) and Picks. If you miss a week or two for whatever reason, you will be able to go into the Historical Guidepost link to catch up with both the weekly guidepost and the 30 picks made for the week.

Greetings, fellow Pro-fundity team members

1. Distance runners, such as marathon participants, learn to appreciate and treasure the occasional breeze from behind that drops minutes from their final time. This “Wind-to-the-back” mentality has been Pro-fundities motto for several years. Although the focus of the Pro-fundity trading mindset has been rolling stocks, short-term swing trades, and high volatility strategies, we’ve placed equal attention to company fundamentals in selecting a data-base for selections each week. This market bias-to-the-positive underlies the trading strategies, methods and techniques we study each week. In this Guidepost we’ll review how it works, by looking at pick performance along with some valuable market wisdom. A couple of things to notice: First, compare the performance each week to the S&P 500 (a proxy for the Market). Secondly, the positive performance shown in each table represents Buy-and Hold over the given time-frame! It is in this framework of positive performance that we ply the trader’s skills and techniques. Consider how the B&H returns could be improved!

   
   

   

   Table 1 - Main picks on 2/28/03, as of 5/2/03

2. Technical analysis tracks the past. It does not predict the future. We need to use our own intelligence to make sense of what past activity says about the future.

   
   

   

   Table 2 - Breakout picks on 2/28/03, as of 5/2/03

3. ”You must be willing to make mistakes regularly. This means making your best judgment on an issue, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” Bruce Kovner

   
   

   

   Table 3 - Quick picks on 2/28/03, as of 5/2/03

4. An important rule of trading is to never get caught in a situation where you can lose a lot of money for reasons you don’t understand.

   
   

   

   Table 4 - Main picks on 3/07/03, as of 5/2/03

5. The successful trader needs a healthy dose of courage. The courage to try, courage to fail, courage to succeed, and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough.

   
   

   

   Table 5 - Breakout picks on 3/07/03, as of 5/2/03

6. Objectivity: The ability to be open to new ideas. A good trader cannot be rigid. Discipline has been touted as an important characteristic of successful traders. However, if discipline becomes pig-headedness, a lack of objectivity, the inability to see and adapt to change, it can be a terrible weakness in the trading game.

   
   

   

   Table 6 - Quick picks on 3/07/03, as of 5/2/03

7. The market is bigger than any single player or group of players. Soon or late, it will go where it wants to go. There is no conspiracy lurking to steal our money.

   
   

   

   Table 7 - Main picks on 3/14/03, as of 5/2/03

8. The leading cause of financial problems is the belief that you can rely on the experts to help you. If you are in a trade because Charley is in it, you won’t have the courage to stay in the trade and take the risk. It must be your trade, your reason.

   
   

   

   Table 8 - Breakout picks on 3/14/03, as of 5/2/03

9. Investors who do best in the long run are those who recognize their errors and unload their mistakes quickly.

   
   

   

   Table 9 - Quick picks on 3/14/03, as of 5/2/03

10. ”Always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea.” Michael Marcus

    
    

    

    Table 10 - Main picks on 3/21/03, as of 5/2/03

11. “No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.” Anonymous

    
    

    

    Table 11 - Breakout picks on 3/21/03, as of 5/2/03

12. Don’t fall in love with a stock. It doesn’t even know you own it. It doesn’t care about you, has no emotional attachment, and has no opinion whether you hold or sell.

    
    

    

    Table 12 - Quick picks on 3/21/03, as of 5/2/03

13. There are three kinds of people: those who can count and those who can’t. Bumper sticker.

    
    

    

    Table 13 - Main picks on 3/28/03, as of 5/2/03

14. “A stockbroker is someone who invests your money until it is all gone.” Woody Allen

    
    

    

    Table 14 - Breakout picks on 3/28/03, as of 5/2/03

15. Studies have shown that the market makes the bulk of its moves in a very short time.

    
    

    

    Table 15 - Quick picks on 3/28/03, as of 5/2/03

16. Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose.

    
    

    

    Table 16 - Main picks on 4/04/03, as of 5/2/03

17. “Selling your winners and holding losers is like cutting your flowers and watering your weeds.” Peter Lynch

    
    

    

    Table 17 - Breakout picks on 4/04/03, as of 5/2/03

18. “Buy low, sell high,” the ever-present battle-cry on Wall Street. Sounds obvious, right? . What is not so obvious is the fact that the battle-cry goes against every fiber of human impulse and emotion. The novice will buy as stock prices push towards new highs, and sell as they plummet to new lows! Actually, one needs nerves of steel to buy low and to sell high, to invest your own money when it seems the markets are stumbling, to sell when the crowds are proclaiming shooting stars. Can’t you just feel the emotion boiling over? Amid the emotion, if you can dump losers and keep winners, you’ll find uncommon success. Do you detect contrary statements in this paragraph? Nobody said it would be clear and easy.

    
    

    

    Table 18 - Quick picks on 4/04/03, as of 5/2/03

19. “You have to sit back quietly and let the bird walk in front of you before you shoot.” James Crabbe, founder, Crabbe Hudson Mutual Funds

    
    

    

    Table 19 - Main picks on 4/11/03, as of 5/2/03

20. “Don’t buy the house, buy the neighborhood.” To make big money in the stock market, find which sectors are growing the fastest and put your money there.

    
    

    

    Table 20 - Breakout picks on 4/11/03, as of 5/2/03

21. “No one would ever have crossed the ocean if he could have gotten off the ship in the storm.” Charles F. Kettering

    
    

    

    Table 21 - Quick picks on 4/11/03, as of 5/2/03

22. “I am easily satisfied with the very best.” Winston Churchill

    
    

    

    Table 22 - Main picks on 4/18/03, as of 5/2/03

23. "Nothing worthwhile ever happens quickly and easily. You achieve only as you are determined to achieve... and as you keep at it until you have achieved." Robert H. Lauer

    
    

    

    Table 23 - Breakout picks on 4/18/03, as of 5/2/03

24. “What is important is to keep learning, to enjoy challenge, and tolerate ambiguity. In the end there are no certain answers.” Marina Horner

    
    

    

    Table 24 - Quick picks on 4/18/03, as of 5/2/03

25. There is no question, trading can be a lot of work. If you’ve tried it and did not enjoy it, you may be better served investing in mutual funds, the lazy man’s approach. Someone said investing is more like farming than mining.

    
    

    

    Table 25 - Main picks on 4/25/03, as of 5/2/03

26. What is clear is that no single investment strategy will bring you above-average returns every single year. To play the market successfully, you will need a combination of investment strategies, the patience and conviction to see you through the down times, a modicum of luck, and the courage to buy when stocks are down and everyone else is fleeing to the sidelines.

    
    

    

    Table 26 - Breakout picks on 4/25/03, as of 5/2/03

27. “Successful investing need not take a lot of effort nor a lot of expertise. It just takes commitment and perseverance. Ultimately, you need only to trust yourself. Develop your own strategies and your own system for playing the market. In the end, there is one fact with which all the experts must agree: Over time, the market always moves up.” Gene Walden

    
    

    

    Table 27 - Quick picks on 4/25/03, as of 5/2/03

28. So, we’ve come to the end of our detailed pick performance display. It is in this race with the wind-to-our-backs that we stand a much better chance for success. Whether you are investing real money or using the pick data-base with PTS (Advanced Trading Tools) to hone your trading strategies, this is a great place to be. Climb aboard for an exhilarating ride.
    05-02-03 Pick Selection:

    Main Picks:
    AGEN,DPL,INTL,MYGN,NTEC,PR,RNA,TECH,TGI,USM
    Breakouts:
    AD,ADS,BCGI,JWA,MGAM,NKTR,PLT,TSFG,WIX,ZRAN
    QuickPicks:
    ALK,CEGE,CK,DQE,FBR,HHS,NTIQ,PLAB,SFD,WOR

    For detail and followup on Pro-fundity Tradescape,
    find the link on "Advanced Trading Tools" on the home page.

    Be Diligent
    Take Action!

    

    
    
    
    
    

    
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